The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook. 5 ft. SW wind 10 kt. And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West Pacific at 125E at +5 degs. MJO/ENSO Discussion West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. SST Anomaly Projections Dribbles Thurs AM (5/4) fading from 3.2 ft @ 11 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). This means no cool water was at depth. But nothing to follow up north. 30, 2023 6:45 AM Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 10 to Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. NAVTEX Coastal & Offshore Waters Forecasts. They are to warm to -0.438 degrees in April, then rising to -0.026 degs in July and hovering near 0,0 degs after that. Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. Pacific-Ocean wave (swell) map for surfers, windsurfers and sailors showing open ocean wave size, wave period and wave energy. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit. National Weather Service The 7 day forecast has moderate east anomalies holding over the bulk of the KWGA to east of 150E till 5/3 then pushing east with modest west anomalies developing filling most of the KWGA by 5/3 and then getting strong over the for West Pacific on 5/5 wand holding through the last day of the model run on 5/7. As southern hemisphere ground swell lingers from the most recent Antarctic swell, NW ground swell is already starting to fill in from that system that, although initially sitting just 1,100 nautical miles from SoCal, will dive south into SoCal as a cut-off low shortly (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data): That low is now diving south and starting to cut off from the jetstream, visible from space this morning on NOAA satellite (image from NOAA GOES): Circled in red we can see that cut-off low, starved of moisture, but with enough being drawn into it to bring rain to SoCal this week. LA was running 58-59 in most spots, but the usually-cooler Cabrillo reported 55 yesterday. WED NIGHT Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022. Summer - Waist to chest high. The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. "Rpertoire national des lus: les maires", The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Gidy&oldid=1063140933, Short description is different from Wikidata, Pages using infobox settlement with image map1 but not image map, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 1 January 2022, at 13:31. NW wind 20 ktveering to N after midnight. You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. Today: Sunny with isolated showers. Horse-Drawn Carriage Tours. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were steady filling the entire subsurface equatorial Pacific. Waikiki long range surf forecast for swell, wind, tide and weather conditions updated multiple times daily. 24. Rain limited to Cape Mendocino through the day and evening. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. Major Global Weather Pattern Change Occurring - El Nino Developing Tropical Update Surface Water Temps That swell will be showing the dominant energy for the majority of the breaks, but that WNW swell will still be hanging in there too. The combined forces of tight pressure- and temperature-gradients means winds along the coast will become strong, whipping up enough fetch to put most west facing breaks into wind swell sets running head high to a couple feet overhead Saturday the 25th, angled from the wind-swell-usual >300 and periods 10 seconds. On Fri AM (4/28) west winds were 40 kts about half way to the dateline with seas 31 ft at 43.5N 162.75E aimed east. South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height, LONG-TERM FORECAST 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023. Over the next 72 hours another gale developed in the South Central Pacific (see South Central Pacific Gale below) and swell from it is radiating northeast. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. The Bureau of Meteorology operates a 7-day Global wave model called Auswave. Updated: Fri, 28-Apr-2023 08:53:54 UTC. Just a minor mix of south swell and NW windswell expected. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 7 ft at 11 seconds. Wind waves 3 to A gale started developing in the Southwest Pacific on Tues AM (4/18) with 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas building. Building 3205 Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts and lifting north with seas 31 ft at 45N 176W aimed east. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35+ kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 47S 150W aimed northeast. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator and a clear El Nino signal is building. 4 to 5 ft. PZZ376-011600 If this materializes, a long-period northwest swell arriving locally next Monday would result. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to bud a surface low near New Caledonia over the short term, generating more quality E-E/NE swell as the low drifts through the South Pacific slot and into the Tasman. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (5/3) early with period 18 secs building to 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later in the day (4.0 ft). And yet another gale is forecast developing in the Southeast Pacific tracking well northeast (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Within In the evening south winds to be lifting northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 50S 145W aimed northeast. 7. Kuril Island Gale Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. National Weather Service Medford, OR There are also options to display live wind observations from ships, wave buoys and weather stations on the wave maps in the Pacific-Ocean region. 16. PZZ300-290400. On Tues AM (2/22) west winds were 40-45 kts half way to the dateline with seas 39 ft at 38.75N 162.5E aimed east. All told, west facing breaks are looking at chest to at times head high sets Monday the 1st, and then more consistently head high Tuesday the 2nd. Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). SW wind 5 ktbacking to S after midnight. Fetch fading on Thurs AM (3/3) form 45 kts over the dateline with 38 ft seas at 44.75N 178.5W aimed east. Swell is pushing towards California. On Wed AM (5/3) fetch is to be solidifying from the south at 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 49S 139.5W aimed northeast. Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Small swell is radiating south from it. SUN SW wind 10 to 20 kt. NW wind 10 to 15 kt. See chart here - link. 34.6 N / -76.2 . WED Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 12 ft at TUE The trend of late has been towards positive readings. TUE NIGHT The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). NW wind swell is becoming possible for the 10th-11th. Wednesday the 10th into Thursday the 11th could see the next southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that should break off Antarctica in a few days (model by FNMOC): Size so far is coming in at chest+ with swell angled from 195 and periods 16 seconds. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. South to southwest fetch is to be building in coverage in the evening at 30-35 kts over a large area with seas 29 ft at 44.25S 137.25W aimed northeast. West Central North Atlantic continental shelf and slope waters. Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours. Swell W 8 to 9 ft at 10 seconds. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022. Maybe some small sideband swell to result for North CA. Wind waves 2 ft or lessbecoming 3 to 4 ft. W swell On Wed AM (4/19) southwest winds were 45-50 kts starting to track northeast with seas 39 ft at 59.5S 153.75W aimed northeast. Multiple Weaker Gales to Follow. Oahu: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (5/1) building to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs right before sunset (3.5 ft). S wind 5 to 10 ktbecoming 10 kt. 1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/30) Weak west anomalies were over the far west KWGA with moderate east anomalies filling the bulk of the KWGA. The jet was split east of 155W with the northern branch weak and pushing towards British Columbia but not reaching there yet. Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/24) Today's temps were steady at -0.710 after rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. 2 Finals Swell Coming From the North - Then It's All Down South. Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. W wind 5 kt. West facing breaks were mostly waist high. This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year. Also called 'Background' swell. http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/. Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (2/25) building from 5.6 ft @ 18 secs at sunrise (10 ft) to 7.2-7.9 ft @ 17-18 secs late afternoon (13.0 ft). Customize forecasts for any offshore location and save them for future use. High pressure is exiting to the east as a trough of low pressure pushes south from the Gulf of Alaska. Showers likely. TONIGHT The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.15 degs in June then rising to -0.75 degs in July and fading before holding near -1.0 degs beyond. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations). A return to a more normal cadence of Active and Inactive MJO phases is starting now. 6 ft. FRI Starting Wed (3/2) the jet is to start splitting on the dateline with 160 kt winds reaching that point, then far weaker east of there. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches. . Surf is now declining back to tiny levels with just minor levels of background swell expected from tradewinds in the South Pacific- around a foot at the most exposed Burnett breaks, tiny elsewhere. This is not believable. On Sun AM (4/30) the gale was fading off Oregon with 30 kt northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 42.5N 134.5W aimed east targeting Central CA northward. The morning may have a little window that could be worth a look. South America ; Islands ; Sign In Try Premium for free. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to waist high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. Symbols shown on the map: Pacific-Ocean Surf Breaks, Tide Forecasts, Cities, Pacific-Ocean Ski Resorts, Live Wave Buoys, Live Webcams, Pacific-Ocean Wind Now, Temperature Now, Weather Now, Pacific-Ocean Swell at breaks, Rating at breaks. Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/23) The latest images depict a broad generic stream of cool water on the equator extending west from just off Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 140W then weaker west of there before dissipating on the dateline. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 ft at 8 seconds building to SW 6 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Southwest Pacific Gale This system is to fade from there. National Data Buoy Center Sea temperatures vary from north to south, though not by much, with a high and low peaks of 23-29C or 73-84F. But weaker residual cool waters were still covering a large area from Peru up to the equator and west to 140W and weaker to the dateline. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. 00:03. Subsurface Waters Temps Crime against visiting surfers is common and becoming increasingly so, especially in the north. Water temperatures are a warm 25 to 27C or 77 to 81F year-round. Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Hourly Multiple Swells Wind Highlighting Model. Monday the 8th, so far, looks about waist high at most spots with occasional chest high pluses at south facing breaks. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool has restarted. After that two weak gales are forecast in the Central Gulf Sun-Tues (3/1) producing 26 and 29 ft seas respectively targeting from Pt Conception northward. Saturday the 6th should run chest high at south facing breaks with occasional head high sets at standouts. Friday should then revert with AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph. The transition to Summer is finally starting. No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time. Offshore Waters Forecasts description: Live Map: Washington and Oregon waters Updated: Mon, 01-May-2023 03:25:31 UTC California waters Updated: Mon, 01-May-2023 03:25:48 UTC: NAVTEX Coastal & Offshore Waters Forecasts description: Live Map: Astoria, OR: Size is expected to drop off a touch as both south swell and WNW swell slowly ease. Summer - Head high or better. the afternoon, thenbecoming 2 ft or less. the week. I'll need a few more days to confirm, but I'm on it and as long as I have your support then I'll be able to keep you posted. PACIFIC OVERVIEW IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.704 degs today and have bottomed out. Southern CA: Dribbles on Mon (5/1) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). gusty north winds. Swell fading on Fri (5/5) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) early. But in late Fall 2022 trades started fading a by early 22023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. Weather models are quite diverged with the local winds, but right now the morning is looking the lightest, with a stronger west wind expected for the afternoon. Meteorological Overview Churches & Cathedrals. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high on the sets and lined up and somewhat rideable but with heavy texture on it from northwest wind. KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E) The main swells in the water are going to be an overlapping pair of Southern Hemisphere swells, with the new one showing bigger sets late. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts approaching the dateline with seas 29 ft near at 40N 173E. Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming. View static weather maps of Pacific-Ocean of wind, precipitation, temperature and cloud. 6 ft. THU Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. Swell fading some on Mon (5/8) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST. 12 ft at 12 seconds. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up and clean but very soft. St. George CA out 10 nm Eglise Notre Dame. 30- to 40-knot winds reached down to Antarctica, blowing over 2000 . Jetstream Still, neither of these forecasts seems realistic (see IRI Consensus forecast below). In autumn and and early spring the Santa Ana wind brings weeks of offshore conditions. Still some fun sized surf out there as that south swell eases and hangs in there, and more short-period NW swell shows.

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